28 Apr It’s no worse than the flu
Tucker Calrson feels that “the virus just isn’t nearly as deadly as we thought.” And what did Tucker base his statement on? Well, of course, the renowned expert D.O. from Bakersfield, CA (yes, Bakersfield) Dr. Daniel Erikson. Dr. Erikson stated in his video that his credentials include “extensive classes in microbiology, biochemistry, and immunology.” (The same as every other first year medical student.) Reviewing Dr. Erikson’s online profile makes note of his training in emergency medicine but no mention of any fellowship training in infectious disease or epidemiology. Dr. Erikson owns a chain of urgent cares and gives a very inconclusive argument for lifting shelter in place. According to Dr. Erikson, his primary thought is “It’s similar to the flu.”
Well then, Tucker and Dr. Erikson, let’s examine a couple factoids..
In early 2019, a publication from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) estimated a range of 99,000 to 200,000 annual deaths from lower respiratory tract infections directly attributable to influenza [3].
This summation means that over a 12 month period the range of deaths was 99,000 to 200,00. If you average this range for 2019 that works out to be 8,250 deaths/mo to 16,666 deaths/mo internationally.
Coronavirus has been tracked internationally since Jan. 22, 2020. Since then 206,677 deaths have occurred from coronavirus. This works out to be 68,892 deaths /mo.
Percentages of deaths from influenza have remained fairly consistent at < 0.1%. This translates into 1 in 1000 persons will die from the flu. COVID-19 has less accurate statistics due to poor testing in the US but the range is anywhere from 1-3 %. This translates into 1-3 in 100 persons will die from COVID-19. This is not similar to the flu.
Tucker Carlson really had to stretch on this one to support his argument. I implore everyone to get their information from reliable medical specialists who spend their lives analyzing this stuff. Remember, the novel COVID-19 is a NOVEL virus that we’ve never dealt with before. We will be learning things on a daily basis for years to come. Please listen to the experts.