Let’s go to the beach!

22 Apr Let’s go to the beach!

COVID-19: Daily new confirmed deaths per million, rolling 7-day average

Everyone wants to go to the beach. It appears that social distancing has worked, so let’s get back to life! Right?  No, wrong.

Fox News touts the ingenious approach to herd immunity that Sweden is attempting, subsequently protecting their economy. Well, let’s use a couple metrics to see how things are transpiring.

The table below illustrates the leading 5 countries in total cases of infection. Sweden is added as a comparison for a country not instituting strict social distancing. The USA leads in total cases/1 M population at 2,474. Sweden has 1,517 total cases/1 M population, which is only 60% of the number of cases seen in the US. Yet the number of deaths/1 M population are greater in Sweden at 175 as compared to the US at 137. Germany has approximately the same number of infections as Sweden but only 1/3 the number of deaths.

Another metric is the graph representing the leading 5  countries  in COVID-19 infection, accompanied by Sweden. Although infection rates remain high, Spain, Italy, and France are showing regression of the number of deaths. On there other hand, the US and Sweden are still on a vertical climb in the number of deaths. And although Sweden has a smaller population than the US, they are surpassing the US in the number of deaths (Sweden 9.35% v US 8.15%).

None of us know, even the experts, exactly how things are going to turn out because the novel COVID-19 virus is… well, novel. We have never dealt with this before and the best epidemiologists are working hard to give us the most accurate information to protect us. I am smart enough to know that I don’t know anything! We all need to trust the experts. Please STAY HOME!